Some public health measures (e.g., lockdown, social distancing, mask wearing, working from home) have led to decrease in the number of deaths from causes other than COVID-19.
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例如,由于人员流动受限,道路交通伤害和季节性流感导致的死亡人数有所下降。
For instance, a decreased number of deaths due to road traffic injuries and seasonal flu has been observed due to restricted movement of people.
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为什么世卫组织的估计数与其他机构编制的估计数有所不同?
Why are the WHOestimatesdifferent from estimates produced by others?
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必须注意到,其他一些团体和多个国家也提出了超额死亡估计数。
It is important to note that other groups and countries have produced excess death estimates.
The difference in the estimates produced by WHO and those produced by other groups are due to key differences in the input data used and assumptions made including how the expected deaths are calculated, the statistical model used, and the variables used to predict deaths in locations where limited or no data is available.
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此外,所评估的时期/月/周可能也会有所不同。
There might also be variations of the period/month/week assessed.
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为最大限度地减少这些差异,提出了不确定性区间。
To minimize these differences, uncertainty intervals are provided.
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在计算包括COVID-19在内的超额死亡率方面存在哪些挑战?
What are the challenges in calculating excess mortality including COVID-19?
Mortality data to calculate actual deaths in real-time are available in only a subset of countries where reporting systems are functioning effectively, and historical datasets to calculate expected deaths are also often incomplete.
Many countries do not have the mortality surveillance capacity to generate and collect data in a timely manner and these data gaps mean that excess mortality cannot be derived for all countries using standard methods.