Under Working Group I of the TAG (Working Group I: Global excess mortality estimates including COVID-19), members considered several statistical models and after assessing performance, interpretability as well as extensibility, the TAG proposed a Poisson regression model (parameterized to account for over-dispersion) to predict the total number of deaths from all causes for the years 2020 and 2021, conditional on the monthly expected deaths over the period and a predicted relative rate parameter which is modelled using country-specific variables.
The model has been used by WHO to generate estimates for countries and regions for which adequate input data were available for reliable inference and to predict estimates for countries with no data available.
In addition to determining levels of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for the years 2020 and 2021, the expertise of the TAG is also being leveraged to develop methods for disaggregating the estimated number of excess deaths by age and sex.
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世卫组织的估计数是依照 《准确透明的卫生估算报告指南》 编制的。
WHO’s estimates are produced following the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting ( GATHER ).
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什么是国家磋商程序，各国会就哪些问题进行磋商？
What is a country consultation process and what are countries be consulted on?
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世卫组织在编制新的估计数时，会与各会员国进行磋商，这是一个经常程序。
It is a regular process that WHO consults with its Member States when producing new estimates.
29.2021) was shared through WHO’s official list of addresses with all Member States requesting the designation of a national focal point to interact with the technical team in this process.
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国家磋商期间，还会考虑任何其他反馈意见。
Designated focal points for each Member State were requested to review estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the data sources and methods used and, to share primary data sources that may not have been previously available to WHO.